Jeff McLane’s keys to Eagles vs. Commanders in Week 8 and a game prediction
The Eagles are 5.5-point underdogs against a one-win team. Can they pull an upset and stay out of the NFC East basement?
The Eagles will travel to face the Washington Commanders at 8:20 on Sunday night at Northwest Stadium. Here’s what you need to know about the matchup:
When the Eagles have the ball: The Eagles know they have to run the ball effectively to have any chance of resurrecting their offense, and for the first time this season, they actually showed some life on the ground last week vs. the Dallas Cowboys. It’s a shame Saquon Barkley couldn’t stay on the field because he looked explosive and decisive whenever he got the ball out of the backfield. He returned on Friday after missing the first two days of practice this week, but it’s unclear how much he’ll be hindered by hamstring and back injuries if he can go. The Eagles’ running back room has looked like a MASH unit. The latest casualty to go on injured reserve was Dameon Pierce. If Barkley is out or limited, Elijah Mitchell or Jaydon Blue could be tabbed as the lead ball carrier. Yikes.
Sean Mannion’s commitment to the outside-zone run game is admirable, though not entirely sensible. The Eagles simply don’t have the personnel to consistently employ the scheme. They did have greater success between the tackle box in left guard Landon Dickerson’s return last week. If this is to be the starting five up front for the remainder of the season, Mannion has a chance to build off that continuity. The Commanders’ run defense isn’t great. They rank 20th in expected points added (EPA) per rush, but are holding running backs to just 3.8 yards a carry. Aside from a Barkley 42-yard jaunt on an inside-zone run, Washington held Eagles tailbacks to just 2.8 yards on their 17 other rushes in the first meeting in Week 1. Longtime defensive tackle Daron Payne is out for the season with a foot injury, a major blow to the unit.
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The Commanders’ run efficiency numbers have been weighed down by their struggles to contain scrambles. Defensive coordinator Daronte Jones plays a lot of two-high safety shells, which can allow for mobile quarterbacks to break containment. Jalen Hurts gained 48 yards on five scrambles in Week 1 vs. Washington. Alas, his replacement Tanner McKee poses no such threat. McKee showed improvement as a passer in his second start, but there were still misfires, misreads, and misadventures whenever he had to drop on passing downs. Mannion did well to get the ball out with schemed-open first reads, particularly on money downs. The Eagles went 7-of-15 on third and fourth downs.
The downfield passing game was lacking, however, without receivers DeVonta Smith (hamstring) and Dontayvion Wicks (ankle). They will be sidelined for a second consecutive week. Rookie Makai Lemon stepped into the vacancy and continued to show why the Eagles drafted him. He’s not afraid to stick his nose in tight spaces and make tough grabs. He’ll likely be McKee’s top read, along with tight end Dallas Goedert, who could be showcased again ahead of the trade deadline. Jones has tried to implement fairly exotic coverage schemes, but there have been busts in the back end partly as a result. Trey Amos is back at corner, while safety Quan Martin is the secondary’s weak link.
The Commanders don’t have a strong four-man pass rush. If they’ve gotten pressure, it’s come more from blitzing. Jones worked under mad genius Brian Flores in Minnesota, and Washington is second only to the Vikings in blitz rate (42.3%). The Cowboys only blitzed McKee on 10% of his drops last week, which boggled the mind. The Eagles had another unblocked pressure on the first play last week and managed to complete the pass, but there’s little doubt Washington will send overloads and simulated pressures at a unit that still doesn’t have enough answers against exotic pressures. Commanders linebacker Frankie Luvu is Jones’ chess piece in the blitz, but rookie linebacker Sonny Styles looks like a star in the making.
When the Commanders have the ball: Jayden Daniels is a good quarterback. He’s not the one-year wonder some have painted him as amid various injuries. He’s back from an elbow injury that sidelined him a few weeks, and despite not having much around him, he’s still managed to keep the Commanders in games. He lost top receiver Terry McLaurin (knee) for the season recently, however, and needs all the help he can get behind a porous offensive line. It’s no wonder he’s looked hesitant in the pocket at times, especially early in games. But he still has a savvy veteran receiver in Stefon Diggs and a couple of capable downfield threats in rookie Antonio Williams and former first-rounder Treylon Burks.
Diggs got the better of Cooper DeJean back in September. The Eagles slot cornerback’s struggles in that game weren’t a one-game blip. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Washington offensive coordinator David Blough go after him in man coverage situations. Blough’s system hasn’t leaned into the under-center stuff that many predicted before the season. Daniels is often in shotgun or the pistol. But he still has a lot of early reads over the middle and will take advantage of second-level linebackers who bite on play-action. Jeremiah Trotter Jr. may be an overall upgrade over Jihaad Campbell (hamstring/quad), who is out, but Trotter is still lacking in experience.
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The Commanders, like the Eagles, have struggled against the blitz. But the Eagles, unlike Washington, don’t have effective blitz packages or blitzers. This is where not having Nakobe Dean might have hurt the most. A toothless blitz has hindered a Vic Fangio pass rush that is last in quick pressure rate. Dak Prescott wasn’t touched once last week. Defensive tackles Jalen Carter and Jordan Davis have taken a lot of heat for the pass rush inadequacies, but the lack of pressure from the edges is of bigger concern. Jonathan Greenard has been either hurt or unproductive, while Jalyx Hunt and Nolan Smith Jr. haven’t won enough one-on-ones. Smith should be back after missing a game because of a concussion.
The Eagles face another set of below-par tackles after failing to capitalize on matchup advantages on Monday night. Left tackle Brandon Coleman, who was forced into the lineup after Laremy Tunsil suffered a triceps injury in training camp, has been a turnstile. We’ll see if Carter has enough pride, as Fangio said he would, to rebound from a career-low performance. He’ll mostly encounter right guard Sam Cosmi, Washington’s lone top-tier blocker, and Carter has faded in their earlier matchups.
» READ MORE: Eagles defensive coordinator Vic Fangio wears blame for performance vs. Cowboys: ‘I didn’t have them ready’
Washington’s run offense isn’t strong and recently lost top tailback Jacory Croskey-Merritt. Rachaad White, formerly of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, has been passable as his replacement. A heavy zone-blocking scheme hasn’t opened enough holes and has struggled against five-man fronts. I can see Davis and Co. bouncing back from last week’s disastrous outing. But they also have to contend with Daniels’ mobility. He can knife defenses on the ground, and Fangio’s scheme has historically had issues keeping running quarterbacks in check.
Extra points: The 1-4-1 Commanders are coming off a much-needed bye. They aren’t quite as banged up as the Eagles, but they’ve gotten off to another bad start with a coach in Dan Quinn who is teetering on the edge of getting fired. Somehow they’re 5½ point favorites, which speaks volumes more about the Eagles than anything else.
Nick Sirianni didn’t call out his players for their effort vs. Dallas, but there were clues that some guys may be checking out. It’s understandable, with half the starting offense injured or gone. But Sirianni’s future could ride on how his team fights in the face of adversity. The culture stuff is supposed to be his strength. If he can’t at least get his squad to play hard, there really isn’t much left to keep him here. That may sound harsh. He certainly does more than that, but after repeated changes to his staff and scheme, there’s little doubt owner Jeffrey Lurie is questioning his coach’s future. He came close to firing him before, although I doubt such a move would come in-season.
As for the outcome of this game, can I pick both teams to lose? Maybe a tie? I won’t chicken out, so let’s go with the home team.
Prediction: Commanders, 20-16.
The Eagles have problems. Eight games into the season, that much is sure. But which ones are symptomatic, versus the ones that are systemic? From the head coach to the personnel, from coordinators to the front office, The Inquirer’s Jeff McLane and David Murphy scrutinize the micro issues that point to some of the larger dilemmas the Eagles now face: should they start to pack it in, and who will be held accountable for the team’s shortcomings? Listen here.
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