The looming lockout complicates roster decisions for teams, including the Phillies
Players on the 40-man roster would be locked out come December and unable to play in the minor leagues, but if a player is not added, his team risks losing him.
LAS VEGAS — As baseball executives convene at the Aria Resort & Casino this week for the annual general managers’ meetings, a shadow looms over the proceedings.
With MLB’s collective bargaining agreement set to expire at 11:59 p.m. on Dec. 1 and no indications that the league and Players Association strike a new deal before then, it’s all but assured that when the calendar turns to next month, a lockout will begin.
That means an immediate and indefinite freeze on trades, free agent signings, and communications between teams and players on 40-man rosters. And the cancellation of the annual winter meetings in December, where a lot of that typically takes place.
The Inquirer's Lochlahn March takes a look at each of the Phillies' position groups — who will be back, free-agent questions, prospects who could be in the mix and more.
Infield | Outfield | Catchers | Starting pitchers | Bullpen
With three weeks remaining until then, though, Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski hasn’t noticed an increased sense of urgency among his fellow executives.
“I would say things have progressed as they normally would progress,” Dombrowski said on Tuesday. “We’ve had a chance to visit all the clubs. That’s normal at this time of year. We’ve had a chance to talk to some of the free agent players. That’s normal. What I don’t know is how it’s going to progress from here.”
As for the Phillies, their list of offseason needs is long: help for the outfield, infield, bullpen, starting pitching depth, and a backup catcher. It’s possible some of the solutions could be internal, with Dombrowski leaving the door open for top infield prospect Aidan Miller to make the club in 2027, but the Phillies will still need plenty of reinforcements.
“If there’s a move to be made that we think makes sense, we’ll do it,” Dombrowski said. “But I’m not also going to rush into things that we don’t think are wise to do.”
There are other considerations for the Phillies with a lockout looming. The protection deadline for the Rule 5 draft is set for Nov. 17, ahead of the CBA’s expiration. The draft itself is held annually at the winter meetings, and allows teams to select eligible players from other clubs’ minor league affiliates to be immediately added to their 26-man roster.
Without the winter meetings during the previous lockout in 2022, MLB did not hold a Rule 5 draft, either. But it’s not a guarantee that the same will hold true this year.
» READ MORE: Trade season is upon us. Here are potential targets for the Phillies to address their big needs.
The idea behind the draft is to prevent organizations from stockpiling prospects who do not have a path to making their major league team. (To remove a Rule 5 pick from the roster, he must clear outright waivers, and he will then be offered back to his former team.)
To protect an eligible prospect from being taken by another club, he must be added to the 40-man roster by the November deadline. Players signed at age 18 or younger must be protected within five seasons, while players who signed at age 19 or older must be protected within four seasons.
This year, though, there is a conundrum for teams: If a player is added to the 40-man roster, he will join the lockout and be unable to play in the minor leagues until it ends. But if a player is not added, his team risks losing him entirely if a draft is held.
The Phillies are still determining their approach, but they intend to add at least one prospect to the 40-man roster before next week’s deadline.
“I do know there’s one player we’re for sure going to protect, and I would not risk losing him under any scenario,” Dombrowski said.
While Dombrowski wouldn’t specify which player he was referring to, shortstop Bryan Rincon is the best prospect among the Phillies’ eligible class this year. Rincon was named the Paul Owens Award winner as the organization’s top minor league position player after a breakout 2026 at the double-A level.
Rincon unlocked a new level of power this season, hitting 26 home runs in 118 games with Reading to go with a .267 batting average and .927 OPS. He’s considered a plus fielder and has speed on the base paths, too. Rincon, 22, is ranked the Phillies’ No. 4 prospect by MLB Pipeline.
» READ MORE: Phillies offseason tracker: Free agency news, trades, key dates, and the latest on the lockout
“That one player, I would not want to gamble on,” Dombrowski said. “I don’t think it’s worth it from what I hear, because I would not feel very good with myself at all, as others wouldn’t be, if something happened and there was a draft and we lost that guy. I’d be saying, ‘Oh my goodness gracious, I can’t believe that.’ Because he might play on our big league club next year, too.”
Fortunately for the Phillies, they do not have to protect Miller, as he is a year away from being Rule 5 eligible. He will be allowed to participate in the minor league season and will also be able to benefit from instruction from the major league staff during the lockout.
Dombrowski also mentioned Rincon by name, along with Miller and Bryson Stott, as one of the Phillies’ potential backup options at shortstop if Trea Turner is unable to improve defensively. The Phillies expect Turner to be their starting shortstop next season, but he is not guaranteed to remain there unless he makes significant strides from his defensive regression in 2026.
The Phillies’ new infield and third base coach, Carlos Mendoza, plans to visit Turner in the next week or so to start the process of working with him, before communications cease next month.
“Hopefully, we don’t have to use any of them. Hopefully, it works with him,” Dombrowski said. “And who knows? Maybe there’s somebody else that we end up adding to the mix into that.”
The general managers' meetings began Monday evening in Las Vegas, and the Phillies were there. Former Mets and Orioles GM Jim Duquette, now the host of a show on MLB Network Radio, joined Phillies Extra to discuss how Dave Dombrowski can improve the roster and which free agents might fit best. He also offers a scouting report on Japanese slugger Teruaki Sato and weighs in on whether to expect a flurry of activity before the looming lockout. Watch here.
You can also subscribe to the podcast version of Phillies Extra on Spotify or Apple Podcasts.
Previous episodes: Garrett Stubbs | Tim Mayza | Aidan Miller | Scott Franzke | Larry Andersen | Matt Klentak | Jeff Francoeur | Luke Murton | Mike Hazen | Tony Gwynn Jr.
